Do heat pumps work in Palmdale winters?

Winters in Palmdale are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 34°F, and the heating season adds up to 2,778 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Palmdale?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,458 of electricity a year for heating and $947 for cooling in Palmdale, at the California average of 33.1¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Palmdale?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,458 a year with a typical heat pump versus $884 with a 95% gas furnace (California averages: 33.1¢/kWh, $2.12/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Palmdale?

With average insulation, roughly a 3.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 32,100 BTU/h and the heating load 38,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Mild winters · Hot summers

Best heat pumps for Palmdale, CA

Winters in Palmdale are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,458 a year to heat a house here and $947 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $884 for the same heat.

Nights at or below 0°F0 a year
Nights at or below 20°F2.5 a year
Days at or above 90°F113 a year
Average winter low34°F
Average summer high95°F
Electricity33.1¢ per kWh
Natural gas$2.12 per therm

Cheapest to run in Palmdale

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1

12,000 BTU mini-split · AIRSTAGE H-Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 31.5
HSPF2: 13.7
Per year here: $490

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $994

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $1,617

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Palmdale

Pre-filled with Palmdale's climate and California prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $1,509/yrYou save $264/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $1,509
Current system, per year: $1,773
You save per year: $264
Payback: Over 30 years
Net after 10 years: -$6,355

Cooling $537Heating $972Electricity used: 4,553 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $408

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Palmdale

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $490/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$490
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$497
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$497
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$520
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$522

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $994/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$994
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$1,129
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$1,139
ComfortStar CHF3-24CD(O)	22.3	13.3	$1,139
Quilt QO1-M3Z27-NC-NA	25.3	12.0	$1,153

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,617/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$1,617
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$1,935
LG KUSXB361A	22.0	10.3	$2,006
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$2,016
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$2,035

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 1,100 full-load hours) at California prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$884/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$1,049/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$1,218/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,458/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$2,010/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$3,845/yr

Electricity and natural gas: California residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $331 in December

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 33.1¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	594	0	$312
February	449	0	$236
March	348	2	$183
April	198	27	$117
May	67	141	$104
June	9	322	$161
July	0	542	$264
August	0	522	$255
September	8	314	$157
October	99	72	$87
November	377	2	$198
December	631	0	$331

What size heat pump for a Palmdale home?3.5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 19,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 28,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house3.5 ton · heating load 38,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house4 ton · heating load 47,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Palmdale winters?: Winters in Palmdale are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 34°F, and the heating season adds up to 2,778 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Palmdale?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,458 of electricity a year for heating and $947 for cooling in Palmdale, at the California average of 33.1¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Palmdale?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,458 a year with a typical heat pump versus $884 with a 95% gas furnace (California averages: 33.1¢/kWh, $2.12/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Palmdale?: With average insulation, roughly a 3.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 32,100 BTU/h and the heating load 38,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station PALMDALE AP (5 km away).