Is a heat pump worth it in Minnesota?

At Minnesota prices a typical heat pump heats a house for about $1,948 a year, against $1,205 for a 95% gas furnace; it wins clearly against propane, oil and electric resistance heat, and it also replaces the air conditioner.

Do I need a cold-climate heat pump in Minnesota?

In parts of the state, yes. Minneapolis, St. Paul, Rochester have winters where an ENERGY STAR cold-climate model is the safer choice. Check your city's guide below.

Severe winters

Best heat pumps for Minnesota

In Minnesota a gas furnace still heats for a little less, but a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,948 a year to heat a house, against $1,205 for a 95% gas furnace, at 16.2¢/kWh and $1.06/therm. Parts of the state need a cold-climate model.

Cheapest to run in Minnesota

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year: $1,535

Lowest yearly running cost in the state's climate.

Full specs and running cost

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year: $438

Lowest yearly running cost in the state's climate.

Full specs and running cost

City guides

Each guide uses that city's own climate data. Typical yearly cost of a 3-ton heat pump, heating plus cooling:

Minneapolis · severe winters$2,121/yr
St. Paul · severe winters$2,119/yr
Rochester · severe winters$2,165/yr

More for Minnesota

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oil$1,948 vs. $1,205 gas

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$1,205/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$1,431/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,948/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$2,363/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$5,137/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$5,263/yr

Top 8: 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,535/yr

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL12.2 HSPF2 · $1,535/yr
LG KUSXA361A10.5 HSPF2 · $1,794/yr
Trane 5TWV0X36A110.5 HSPF2 · $1,808/yr
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A10.5 HSPF2 · $1,812/yr
Lennox EL21KLV-036-230A10.4 HSPF2 · $1,831/yr
GE NS21H36MA5-**A10.4 HSPF2 · $1,831/yr
LG KUSXB361A10.3 HSPF2 · $1,835/yr
SAMYOU VUH36-VA6BA(O)10.2 HSPF2 · $1,863/yr

All 3-ton heat pumps

Top 8: 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $438/yr

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W14.5 HSPF2 · $438/yr
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA14.5 HSPF2 · $438/yr
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP113.7 HSPF2 · $457/yr
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS112.9 HSPF2 · $486/yr
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH112.7 HSPF2 · $492/yr
Carrier 37MPRAQ12AA312.7 HSPF2 · $493/yr
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAH112.7 HSPF2 · $493/yr
Mainline ML12HP230CALH-O12.7 HSPF2 · $493/yr

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Climate in the state's citiesNOAA normals

Minneapolis22.1 nights ≤ 0°F · 13 days ≥ 90°F
St. Paul19.6 nights ≤ 0°F · 12 days ≥ 90°F
Rochester25.5 nights ≤ 0°F · 5 days ≥ 90°F

Questions2

Is a heat pump worth it in Minnesota?: At Minnesota prices a typical heat pump heats a house for about $1,948 a year, against $1,205 for a 95% gas furnace; it wins clearly against propane, oil and electric resistance heat, and it also replaces the air conditioner.
Do I need a cold-climate heat pump in Minnesota?: In parts of the state, yes. Minneapolis, St. Paul, Rochester have winters where an ENERGY STAR cold-climate model is the safer choice. Check your city's guide below.

Running cost calculator

Pre-filled with Minnesota prices. Pick your city and what you heat with today.

Heat pump $1,396/yrCosts more by $247/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $1,396
Current system, per year: $1,149
Costs more per year: $247
Payback: No payback
Net after 10 years: -$11,470

Cooling $97Heating $1,298Electricity used: 8,600 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $298

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.