Do heat pumps work in St. Paul winters?

St. Paul averages 20 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 12°F, and the heating season adds up to 7,443 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in St. Paul?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,948 of electricity a year for heating and $172 for cooling in St. Paul, at the Minnesota average of 16.2¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in St. Paul?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,948 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,205 with a 95% gas furnace (Minnesota averages: 16.2¢/kWh, $1.06/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in St. Paul?

With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 60,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Severe winters · Mild summers

Best heat pumps for St. Paul, MN

St. Paul averages 20 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,948 a year to heat a house here and $172 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $1,205 for the same heat.

Nights at or below 0°F20 a year
Nights at or below 20°F81 a year
Days at or above 90°F12 a year
Average winter low12°F
Average summer high81°F
Electricity16.2¢ per kWh
Natural gas$1.06 per therm

Cheapest to run in St. Paul

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here. Cold-climate certified models only.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $438

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $877

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $1,535

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for St. Paul

Pre-filled with St. Paul's climate and Minnesota prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $1,396/yrCosts more by $247/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $1,396
Current system, per year: $1,149
Costs more per year: $247
Payback: No payback
Net after 10 years: -$11,470

Cooling $97Heating $1,298Electricity used: 8,600 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $298

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for St. Paul

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $438/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$438
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$438
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$457
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$486
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$492

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $877/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$877
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$953
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$957
Comfort-Aire A-VHP24SA-1	21.0	13.5	$958
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$966

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,535/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$1,535
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$1,794
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$1,808
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$1,812
Lennox EL21KLV-036-230A	20.0	10.4	$1,831

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 3,000 full-load hours) at Minnesota prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$1,205/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$1,431/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,948/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$2,363/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$5,137/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$5,263/yr

Electricity and natural gas: Minnesota residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $395 in January

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 16.2¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	1,511	0	$395
February	1,238	0	$324
March	988	0	$259
April	543	3	$143
May	225	36	$67
June	35	150	$45
July	5	262	$64
August	10	198	$49
September	133	70	$51
October	503	7	$133
November	912	0	$239
December	1,342	0	$351

What size heat pump for a St. Paul home?5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 30,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house4 ton · heating load 45,000 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house5 ton · heating load 60,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house5+ ton · heating load 75,000 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in St. Paul winters?: St. Paul averages 20 nights a year at or below 0°F, so pick a cold-climate certified model and check its output at 5°F. The average winter low is 12°F, and the heating season adds up to 7,443 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in St. Paul?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,948 of electricity a year for heating and $172 for cooling in St. Paul, at the Minnesota average of 16.2¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in St. Paul?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,948 a year with a typical heat pump versus $1,205 with a 95% gas furnace (Minnesota averages: 16.2¢/kWh, $1.06/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in St. Paul?: With average insulation, roughly a 5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 60,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station ST PAUL DOWNTOWN AP (4 km away).