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      Barely any heating season · Very hot summers

      Best heat pumps for Phoenix, AZ

      Phoenix barely needs heating; choose on cooling efficiency (SEER2 and EER2).

      A typical heat pump costs about $309 a year to heat a house here and $901 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $339 for the same heat, so the heat pump is cheaper to run.

      This guide also covers Peoria and Surprise, which share Phoenix's weather station and climate data.

      Cheapest to run in Phoenix

      Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here.

      Running cost calculator for Phoenix

      Pre-filled with Phoenix's climate and Arizona prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

      Heat pump $717/yrYou save $573/yrSee details ↓
      1. Where you live
      Adjust heating and cooling hours

      Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

      2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings
      3. What it replaces
      4. Price replace the example with your quote
      Heat pump, per year
      $717
      Current system, per year
      $1,290
      You save per year
      $573
      Payback
      15.7 years
      Net after 10 years
      -$3,273

      Cooling $511Heating $206Electricity used: 4,633 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $245

      Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

      More for Phoenix

      Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $230/yr
      ModelSEER2HSPF2Per year
      Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP131.513.7$230
      Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH130.512.7$240
      Mitsubishi Electric MUZ-FX12NLHZ29.912.4$246
      Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS129.412.9$246
      Carrier 37MPRAQ12AA329.512.7$246

      All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

      Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $499/yr
      ModelSEER2HSPF2Per year
      SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG27.514.5$499
      Quilt QO1-M3Z27-NC-NA25.312.0$558
      TCL TMH27HEI2NAS0U2526.510.5$562
      TOSOT TW24HAY32A1DO27.010.0$564
      Samsung AM024HCMDCG26.010.7$566

      All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

      Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $744/yr
      ModelSEER2HSPF2Per year
      TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL29.712.2$744
      LG KUSXA361A23.510.5$917
      LG KUSXB361A22.010.3$966
      Heil H5H3V36*K*AAA22.59.5$974
      Trane 5TWV0X36A121.010.5$995

      All 3-ton central heat pumps

      Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilheat pump is cheaper than gas

      Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 500 full-load hours) at Arizona prices.

      • Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$309/yr
      • Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$339/yr
      • Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$403/yr
      • Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$554/yr
      • Electric baseboard or furnace$816/yr
      • Heating oil, 85% AFUE$913/yr

      Electricity and natural gas: Arizona residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

      Month by monthpeak $193 in July

      Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 15.5¢/kWh.

      MonthHeating DDCooling DDCost
      January3191$82
      February2265$59
      March11754$42
      April29165$45
      May3409$94
      June0663$151
      July0849$193
      August0821$187
      September0633$144
      October10305$72
      November13557$48
      December3631$94
      What size heat pump for a Phoenix home?3 ton for 2,000 sq ft
      • 1,000 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 15,000 BTU/h
      • 1,500 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 22,500 BTU/h
      • 2,000 sq ft house3 ton · heating load 30,000 BTU/h
      • 2,500 sq ft house3.5 ton · heating load 37,500 BTU/h

      Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

      Questions4
      Do heat pumps work in Phoenix winters?
      Phoenix barely needs heating; choose on cooling efficiency (SEER2 and EER2). The average winter low is 44°F, and the heating season adds up to 1,202 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
      How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Phoenix?
      A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $309 of electricity a year for heating and $901 for cooling in Phoenix, at the Arizona average of 15.5¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
      Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Phoenix?
      Yes, for heating at today's prices: about $309 a year with a typical heat pump versus $339 with a 95% gas furnace, using Arizona averages of 15.5¢/kWh and $1.79/therm.
      What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Phoenix?
      With average insulation, roughly a 3-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 35,100 BTU/h and the heating load 30,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

      Nearby cities

      Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station PHOENIX DEER VALLEY MUNI AP (13 km away).