Do heat pumps work in Modesto winters?

Winters in Modesto are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 40°F, and the heating season adds up to 2,300 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Modesto?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,193 of electricity a year for heating and $807 for cooling in Modesto, at the California average of 33.1¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Modesto?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,193 a year with a typical heat pump versus $723 with a 95% gas furnace (California averages: 33.1¢/kWh, $2.12/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Modesto?

With average insulation, roughly a 2.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 30,600 BTU/h and the heating load 30,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Mild winters · Warm summers

Best heat pumps for Modesto, CA

Winters in Modesto are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,193 a year to heat a house here and $807 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $723 for the same heat.

Nights at or below 0°F0 a year
Nights at or below 20°F0 a year
Days at or above 90°F90 a year
Average winter low40°F
Average summer high93°F
Electricity33.1¢ per kWh
Natural gas$2.12 per therm

Cheapest to run in Modesto

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1

12,000 BTU mini-split · AIRSTAGE H-Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 31.5
HSPF2: 13.7
Per year here: $406

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $826

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $1,342

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for Modesto

Pre-filled with Modesto's climate and California prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $1,252/yrYou save $234/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $1,252
Current system, per year: $1,487
You save per year: $234
Payback: Over 30 years
Net after 10 years: -$6,655

Cooling $457Heating $795Electricity used: 3,780 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $341

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for Modesto

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $406/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$406
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$413
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$413
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$432
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$433

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $826/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$826
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$940
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$948
ComfortStar CHF3-24CD(O)	22.3	13.3	$948
Quilt QO1-M3Z27-NC-NA	25.3	12.0	$958

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,342/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$1,342
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$1,606
LG KUSXB361A	22.0	10.3	$1,666
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$1,675
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$1,691

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 900 full-load hours) at California prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$723/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$859/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$996/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,193/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$1,644/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$3,146/yr

Electricity and natural gas: California residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $283 in December

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 33.1¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	544	0	$282
February	364	0	$189
March	262	3	$137
April	146	29	$90
May	44	133	$89
June	5	288	$146
July	0	429	$213
August	0	395	$196
September	4	269	$135
October	68	75	$72
November	318	2	$166
December	546	0	$283

What size heat pump for a Modesto home?2.5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house1.5 ton · heating load 15,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 22,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 30,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house3 ton · heating load 37,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in Modesto winters?: Winters in Modesto are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 40°F, and the heating season adds up to 2,300 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in Modesto?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,193 of electricity a year for heating and $807 for cooling in Modesto, at the California average of 33.1¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in Modesto?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,193 a year with a typical heat pump versus $723 with a 95% gas furnace (California averages: 33.1¢/kWh, $2.12/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in Modesto?: With average insulation, roughly a 2.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 30,600 BTU/h and the heating load 30,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station MODESTO CITY CO AP (4 km away).