Do heat pumps work in San Jose winters?

Winters in San Jose are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 43°F, and the heating season adds up to 2,184 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).

How much does it cost to run a heat pump in San Jose?

A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,126 of electricity a year for heating and $316 for cooling in San Jose, at the California average of 33.1¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.

Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in San Jose?

Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,126 a year with a typical heat pump versus $683 with a 95% gas furnace (California averages: 33.1¢/kWh, $2.12/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.

What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in San Jose?

With average insulation, roughly a 2.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 30,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Mild winters · Mild summers

Best heat pumps for San Jose, CA

Winters in San Jose are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling.

A typical heat pump costs about $1,126 a year to heat a house here and $316 to cool it. A 95% gas furnace would cost $683 for the same heat.

This guide also covers Santa Clara, which share San Jose's weather station and climate data.

Nights at or below 0°F0 a year
Nights at or below 20°F0 a year
Days at or above 90°F16 a year
Average winter low43°F
Average summer high81°F
Electricity33.1¢ per kWh
Natural gas$2.12 per therm

Cheapest to run in San Jose

Ranked by yearly electricity cost in this climate, so the balance of heating and cooling efficiency is the one that matters here.

Best 12,000 BTU mini-split

MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W

12,000 BTU mini-split · MSOP series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $298

For one large room.

Full specs and running cost

Best 24,000 BTU mini-split

SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG

24,000 BTU mini-split · SHC Series · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 27.5
HSPF2: 14.5
Per year here: $596

For open-plan floor or small home.

Full specs and running cost

Best 3-ton central heat pump

TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL

3 ton central · cold-climate certified

SEER2: 29.7
HSPF2: 12.2
Per year here: $1,012

For typical whole house.

Full specs and running cost

Running cost calculator for San Jose

Pre-filled with San Jose's climate and California prices. Pick a model, tell it what you heat with today, and add your quote.

Heat pump $930/yrCosts more by $31/yrSee details ↓

1. Where you live

StateCityElectricity ¢ per kWh

Adjust heating and cooling hours

Filled in from your city's climate. Change them if you run the system much more or less than usual.

Cooling hours full-load hours per yearHeating hours full-load hours per year

2. The heat pump pick a model or type its ratings

Find a model (fills in the ratings below)

SEER2 cooling efficiencyHSPF2 heating efficiencyCooling capacity BTU/hHeating capacity BTU/h

3. What it replaces

Current heatingFurnace efficiency (AFUE %)Gas price, $/thermCurrent coolingOld AC rating SEER2 (10 ≈ 15+ years old)

4. Price replace the example with your quote

Installed price, $Rebates and incentives, $ utility, state

Heat pump, per year: $930
Current system, per year: $898
Costs more per year: $31
Payback: No payback
Net after 10 years: -$9,314

Cooling $179Heating $751Electricity used: 2,807 kWhSaved vs. a minimum-efficiency heat pump: $221

Estimates use the unit's rated SEER2 and HSPF2, full-load hours derived from NOAA 1991-2020 degree days, average residential electricity prices from the U.S. EIA (12 months to July 2026) and fuel prices from EIA (2025 for natural gas, week of 2026-10-05 for propane and heating oil). Very cold days that need backup heat are not modelled. Federal minimum for comparison: 14.3 SEER2 / 7.5 HSPF2.

More for San Jose

Top 5 12,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $298/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
MDV MOX430-12HFN1-MZ60W	27.5	14.5	$298
Goodman MSH123G26MCAA	27.5	14.5	$298
Fujitsu AOUH12KTAP1	31.5	13.7	$303
Fujitsu AOUG12LZAS1	29.4	12.9	$323
Fujitsu AOUH12KZAH1	30.5	12.7	$325

All 12,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 24,000 BTU mini-splitsfrom $596/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
SLIMAIR SHC24VH2AG	27.5	14.5	$596
MDV MOD30-24HFN10-M1X	22.3	13.5	$661
Mainline ML24HP230NEXH-O	22.3	13.3	$669
ComfortStar CHF3-24CD(O)	22.3	13.3	$669
Arcoaire D5CSHAH24AAK	21.2	13.5	$669

All 24,000 BTU mini-splits

Top 5 3-ton central heat pumpsfrom $1,012/yr

Model	SEER2	HSPF2	Per year
TOSHIBA CARRIER MCY-MUB0368HS2P-UL	29.7	12.2	$1,012
LG KUSXA361A	23.5	10.5	$1,194
Trane 5TWV0X36A1	21.0	10.5	$1,221
Lennox SL22KLV-036-230A	20.5	10.5	$1,227
LG KUSXB361A	22.0	10.3	$1,228

All 3-ton central heat pumps

Heat pump vs. gas, propane and oilgas is cheaper to run

Yearly cost to heat a typical house (36,000 BTU/h of heat, 850 full-load hours) at California prices.

Natural gas furnace, 95% AFUE$683/yr
Natural gas furnace, 80% AFUE$811/yr
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE$941/yr
Heat pump (typical, 9.0 HSPF2)$1,126/yr
Heating oil, 85% AFUE$1,553/yr
Electric baseboard or furnace$2,971/yr

Electricity and natural gas: California residential averages from the U.S. EIA; propane and heating oil: latest EIA weekly prices.

Month by monthpeak $230 in December

Heating and cooling degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals) and what a typical 3-ton heat pump costs in each month at 33.1¢/kWh.

Month	Heating DD	Cooling DD	Cost
January	440	0	$227
February	332	0	$171
March	278	2	$144
April	197	11	$107
May	102	38	$72
June	24	93	$59
July	4	142	$73
August	2	157	$80
September	12	130	$72
October	72	49	$62
November	275	2	$143
December	446	0	$230

What size heat pump for a San Jose home?2.5 ton for 2,000 sq ft

1,000 sq ft house1.5 ton · heating load 15,000 BTU/h
1,500 sq ft house2 ton · heating load 22,500 BTU/h
2,000 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 30,000 BTU/h
2,500 sq ft house2.5 ton · heating load 37,500 BTU/h

Average insulation, 8 ft ceilings. Size calculator for your own home

Questions4

Do heat pumps work in San Jose winters?: Winters in San Jose are mild, so heating efficiency matters less than cooling. The average winter low is 43°F, and the heating season adds up to 2,184 heating degree days (NOAA 1991-2020 normals).
How much does it cost to run a heat pump in San Jose?: A typical 3-ton central heat pump (17.0 SEER2, 9.0 HSPF2) uses about $1,126 of electricity a year for heating and $316 for cooling in San Jose, at the California average of 33.1¢/kWh. The most efficient models cost less - see the rankings above.
Is a heat pump cheaper than a gas furnace in San Jose?: Not on heating alone at today's prices: about $1,126 a year with a typical heat pump versus $683 with a 95% gas furnace (California averages: 33.1¢/kWh, $2.12/therm). A high-HSPF2 model narrows the gap, and a heat pump also replaces the air conditioner. Against propane, oil or electric heat it is usually far cheaper.
What size heat pump do I need for a 2,000 sq ft house in San Jose?: With average insulation, roughly a 2.5-ton system: the estimated cooling load is 27,600 BTU/h and the heating load 30,000 BTU/h. Use the size calculator for your own house, and ask installers for a Manual J calculation.

Nearby cities

Climate: NOAA 1991-2020 normals, station SAN JOSE (12 km away).